Marriages due to online dating
Because of this, even if the divorce rate per 1,000 marriages was remaining steady throughout the duration of the marriage we would expect to see the slope of the curves decrease over time.
To account for this I’ve reworked the same data to measure the number of marriages which disappeared during each period divided by the number of marriages the period started out with.
As I said, the standard explanation of women who marry young changing their priorities after marriage strikes me as having some merit.
Under the current feminized model this would seem to pose a real risk, but my proposal in the previous post addresses that risk.
I then took this number and divided it by 5 (the number of years in each period) and multiplied it by 1,000 to come up with a rough annual rate of marriage endings (death divorce) per 1,000 couples.
Here is what this looks like for men: The pattern across marriage cohorts is strikingly similar.
To determine the 10 year divorce rate they must be looking at marriages which occurred in 1985 or earlier.
In fact, this appears to be the same 1995 data set which I found looked at divorces going back to 1965 when looking at remarriage rates.
However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that the higher divorce rate observed is due to women “not knowing themselves” yet.
There are a number of plausible explanations, with that hypothesis being only one of them: My own sense is that all of these explanations are in play here to some degree.
Perhaps the chart above is just an artifact of divorce risk declining steadily the older the marriage gets.
This question had me looking for more data to try to better understand what is going on.
This kind of trend might even explain the declining divorce risk as women age.Tags: Adult Dating, affair dating, sex dating